The American dream becoming lost on Conejo Valley


There couldn’t be a more schizophrenic economy right now than the one locally.

First, the national news: Equity markets are flirting with all-time highs, nationwide unemployment is at a 50-year low and by July, the economic expansion will surpass the 1990s to become America’s longest growth period on record. In the San Fernando Valley—where jobs are plentiful and housing prices not nearly as high as they are in the greater Conejo Valley and Ventura County—the economic growth rate is almost double the nationwide rate, statistics show. Last year our neighbors to the east enjoyed employment increases and growth in nearly every sector of the economy.

The area from Calabasas to the west, it appears, wasn’t invited to the dance. In a forecast delivered last week to the Greater Conejo Valley Chamber of Commerce, Cal Lutheran University economist Matthew Fienup said there have been four consecutive years of zero economic growth in Ventura County and a net migration scenario in which more people are now leaving the area than moving into it. It’s because they can’t afford to live here anymore. Increasingly high rents and home prices are driving some residents away and deterring others from coming in.

Despite a purported end to the Great Recession, the greater Conejo Valley’s traditionally high-paying jobs in manufacturing, information technology and financial services have stagnated if not dropped, and taking their place are more middle-income jobs in hospitality and education—jobs that are being snapped up by ambitious workers from the San Fernando and Antelope valleys.

An estimated 120,000 people are commuting to work in Ventura County every day. More congestion. People who do live locally—and who happen to hold one of those middle-income jobs in the $50,000-$100,000 range—are being priced out of the housing market and have become the fastest-shrinking segment of the county’s population. A labor force contraction in a non-recessionary economy is virtually unheard of.

Here’s the most amazing thing: While the Ventura County labor force and economy are indeed down, home prices in the area continue to appreciate at 6 to 7% a year. Fienup’s Center for Economic Research and Forecasting is predicting another year of little to no growth locally. And if companies aren’t expanding and business stalls, the housing market must eventually correct. Why it hasn’t already is part of that befuddlement we mentioned at the outset.

It’s a question of supply. While home prices have mostly returned to their pre-recession levels, the number of permits issued for new construction in the county has declined—from 3,500 before the recession to 2,500 in 2017 to just 1,500 last year. The door to the Conejo Valley and beyond is being shut. Residents are leaving western Los Angeles and Ventura County and looking for prosperity elsewhere. As the local economy staggers and your home’s value declines, don’t say we didn’t warn you.