The economy and college

In recent years, families have worried about paying for college as tuition has increased faster than the rate of inflation. But this year, the state of the economy may lead to major changes for students, parents and colleges.

We're already seeing more students apply to public institutions, but budget constraints mean that these schools will not be able to accommodate the number of student seeking admission.

In fact, continued cuts in funding will mean cuts in programs and services as well as increases in tuition. Competition for admission to University of California and California State University campuses will be more intense than ever. Cal State is set to deny admission to 10,000 eligible students this year, and UC is also warning of enrollment limits.

The problem extends well beyond California. Binghamton University, an excellent public school that is part of the State University of New York, has already had a 50 percent increase in applications this year. I've heard that the University of Central Florida, which has been a safety school for many Florida students applying to the more competitive University of Florida and Florida State University, has seen a 40 percent increase in applications.

More competition at highly selective public colleges means many strong students could end up attending less selective public schools, and that will raise the quality of those schools. But less selective public universities also face funding cuts. Arizona State University is laying off instructors, and that means students will have a more difficult time getting the courses they need to graduate in four years.

Surprisingly, given the fact that many private colleges now cost $40,000-50,000 a year, admissions officers at some private schools have also seen increases in applications. This is supposed to be the peak year for students graduating high school and applying to college, and perhaps that's why application numbers are rising at a number of private as well as public schools. Some students will apply to both private and public colleges and wait to see financial aid packages, as well as the condition of the family finances, in the spring.

Students who are applying to private colleges and don't need financial aid could benefit from the state of the economy. College endowments are down, donations from alumni are going to be more difficult to come by, and admissions officers at some colleges that have been need-blind in the past may be forced to consider financial need in admissions decisions.

The wealthiest schools are committed to providing financial support to students from low- and middle-income families. But all colleges are impacted by lower endowments, so even elite schools like Stanford, Harvard, Brown and Cornell are looking at other ways to cut costs, including hiring freezes and the possibility of delaying infrastructure projects. Among less prestigious colleges, it will be difficult to charge more to families already questioning whether private colleges are a realistic option.

This year's admissions process could be the most unpredictable we've ever seen, and students who would have easily been admitted to UC Santa Barbara or UC Davis in previous years should consider applying to less selective UC campuses. Similarly, students who assumed they would get into the most popular Cal State campuses should apply more broadly. We will also see more students planning to start at community colleges, which can offer a low-cost path to a UC or Cal State degree.

For years, I've advised students to apply to at least one "safety" school, where we can be sure they will be admitted. In this economy, it's also important to apply to at least one "financial safety" school.

Audrey Kahane, MS, MFA, is a private college admissions counselor in West Hills. She can be reached at (818) 704-7545 or audrey@audreykahane.com.