Earthquake 'shake-out' gets cities prepared

When a major earthquake of magnitude 7.8 or higher rocks Southern California, local cities, schools, medical centers and businesses that participated in the Great Southern California ShakeOut on Nov. 13 will be a little safer during and after the disaster.

The city of Agoura Hills has been preparing for life on shaky ground for years. The ShakeOut was an opportunity to test equipment and procedures designed to help people cope during and after a major temblor.

Chris Dodd, administrative analyst and emergency operations coordinator for the city, told the City Council Nov. 12 that the "ShakeOut" was conducted throughout the state and millions of people participated. The geological record, which is based on centuries of archaeological data, shows that a major earthquake, magnitude 7 or greater, on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California strikes every 150 years.

According to Ken Hudnut, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey, the 150-year trend is determined through carbon dating. The last big earthquake in the area was actually more than 300 years ago, in the year 1680.

In the field of paleoseismology, scientists can read the history of earth's movement back to prehistoric times, Hudnut said. The strata of the layers of earth is disrupted during earthquakes, he said.

Carol Tubelis, outgoing emergency services coordinator, also worked on the event. At 10 a.m. on Nov. 13, everyone in the region who participated in the ShakeOut performed the recommended "drop, cover and hold on" technique as if there were a major earthquake occurring at that very moment, she said.

After the drop and cover exercise, the city opened its Emergency Operations Center, where city officials and volunteers used radios, rather than telephones or computers, to communicate with the Office of Emergency Management in Los Angeles.

Trial evacuations and damage checks of city hall, the recreation center and the library followed.

Although there was no true danger, Thursday happened to be "senior day" at the city's recreation center. The staff evacuated seniors into the parking lot and learned a thing or two about what it would be like if an earthquake had really occurred, Tubelis said.

"It was kind of a wake-up call for us," Tubelis said. "Because it happened when seniors were there, we needed to know what to do."

After everyone returned to the center, another exercise was conducted, including a summary of what should and should not be done during an earthquake.

Agoura Hills Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) has 51 members, all trained but not necessarily active. "If there was an earthquake they would be qualified to help," Tubelis said of the members who don't regularly attend scheduled meetings.

CERT members are trained in triage and treatment, search and rescue, and communication, and have taken courses through the Department of Transportation and the Red Cross.

Is the city prepared for the big one? Tubelis thinks so.

"We're much better prepared than we were three years ago," she said. "Each time we have an exercise, we get better prepared."

She said that no one can prepare too much for such a largescale disaster, especially since the steps that the city and volunteers will undergo during and after such a large earthquake depend upon when the earthquake strikes— during working hours, at night or on weekends.

A new study released by the Southern California Earthquake Center, the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey, forecasts that California has a 99.7 percent chance of having an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or larger in the next 30 years. The probability that the earthquake will affect the greater Los Angeles area is 67 percent, compared to the San Francisco Bay area at 63 percent, according to the study.

As for the likelihood of a quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in 30 years, the study found the probability to be 46 percent, with a 37 percent chance it will happen in Southern California.

Of the fault lines in California, the San Andreas Fault is the most overdue for an earthquake.

Since scientists cannot make precise predictions about when, where or how big a future earthquake will be, experts agree that the best defense is to be prepared.

A new 3-D animated scenario of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake is available at earthquake.usgs .gov/ regional/nca/simulations/ shakeout.

In a Nutshell

•Do a "hazard hunt" for items that might fall in your home during earthquakes and secure them.

•Create a personal or family disaster-preparedness plan.

—Plan for your family's specific needs.

—Teach all household members how to use a fire extinguisher.

—Create wallet cards ith essential contact information.

•Organize or refresh your emergency supply kits.

—Store at least one gallon of water per person, per day, for three days minimum.

—What would you need if you were in your car or office when the earthquake strikes?

•Identify your building's weaknesses. Also, review your insurance coverage. Consider earthquake insurance.

•Create a game where everyone responds to a signal by practicing Drop, Cover and Hold On. Talk to your children about what to expect during and after an earthquake.

•Enroll in a local Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) training.

•Provide nonEnglish speakers with written information in their language.

Tips provided by the Great Southern California ShakeOut (www.shakeout.org/individuals).