Earthquake disaster simulation will test readiness

Seismic predictions are an inexact science at best, but experts at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) still estimate that there is a nearly 50 percent chance that an earthquake of magnitude 7.2 or greater will strike Southern California in the next 30 years.

A quake of that size would shut down roadways and severely disrupt electricity, gas, water and phone services, forcing businesses to close and residents to fend for themselves for several days as first responders scramble to deal with the catastrophe.

For this reason, agencies such as USGS and the Governor's Office of Emergency Services are asking that residents do all they can to be prepared—not only to save themselves and their families, but their neighbors as well.

"Ninety-five percent of all earthquake victims are rescued by other victims, so it's likely that in a disaster you will be rescued by your neighbors," said Dale Cox, project manager for the USGS 2008 ShakeOut scenario.

The disaster simulation, scheduled for Nov. 12 through 16, will attempt to recreate the effects of a 7.8 magnitude rupture of the San Andreas Fault in order to test the abilities of emergency responders and encourage readiness at the grass-roots level.

In addition to storing food, water and other necessities, people should make sure they have leather gloves, a crowbar and at least one fire extinguisher, Cox said.

"All family members should know how to use these tools and what to do in an emergency," he said.

"This (USGS) report is a serious reminder that it is important to be ready for earthquakes or other natural disasters," said Jonathan Fielding, director of public health and health officer for L.A. County.

Having a family communication plan and an emergency kit can provide the necessary resources to help families get through a difficult situation. The communication plan should include information on how to contact each other and designate a safe place to meet, Fielding said.

Many cities offer free disasterpreparedness classes so residents can learn to help themselves and their neighbors.

Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) classes in Agoura Hills are taught by members of the L.A. County Fire Department. The classes provide basic training in disaster preparedness, fire suppression, basic disaster medical services, light search and rescue, team organization and protection against terrorist threats.

The next class begins at 6:30 p.m. Tues., Sept. 9 and runs for seven consecutive Tuesday evenings, with the final drill on Sat., Oct. 25.

"The free class is open to anyone in the area who wants to take it," said Carol Tubelis, emergency operations coordinator for Agoura.

About 200 people have been certified for the level I class since 2005. Approximately 40 of them also earned the American Red Cross Level II Mass Care and Shelter certification, and 15 achieved the Red Cross Level III Emergency Response qualifications.

The emergency response team program was developed by the Los Angeles Fire Department in 1985. The Federal Emergency Management Agency now uses the program as a national model for other communities.