California will test its earthquake readiness

Although the earthquake that measured a magnitude 5.4 in Chino last month did not cause widespread damage, it served as a wake-up call for local residents who could face an even larger temblor in the future.

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the scientific research center that studies earthquake trends, there is a 46 percent chance that a magnitude 7.2 quake or larger will strike Southern California in the next 30 years.

In a recent report called "The ShakeOut Scenario," scientists predicted that in the aftermath of an earthquake in the magnitude of 7.8, the Southland would be hit with 1,800 fatalities, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damages.

With staggering statistics in mind, the state is doing what it can to ensure that the public and emergency responders are at maximum readiness if and when the "big one" strikes. A statesponsored, weeklong series of public awareness events is being planned for November. "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" will addresses the hypothetical scenario of how a large earthquake would impact the region and its resources.

The week's events will feature an emergency-preparedness drill dubbed "Golden Guardian '08."

Jointly coordinated by USGS, the Governor's Office of Emergency Services and the California Office of Homeland Security, the drill will measure how fast emergency responders react to the loss of power, communication lines and transportation routes that would accompany a quake 7.8 earthquake.

"The planned emergency drill is underpinned by the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean on the ground," said Dr. Lucile Jones, chief scientist for U.S. Geological Survey's Southern California Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. "We know this science will help state and local agencies develop comprehensive emergency-response plans that will help us avoid the worst impacts of a major quake."

Seriously

Although hypothetical, "The ShakeOut Scenario" is based on scientific predictions of what would occur during and after a major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault, said Dale Cox, USGS project manager for the scenario.

A consortium of seismologists and physicists will be in charge of creating the simulated disaster, Cox said.

Local cities and counties will be a part of the training, which is being described as the largest earthquake preparedness drill in California history.

"Ventura County is ready, but none of this means anything if residents are not prepared to take care of themselves," said Peter Foy, chair of the Ventura County Board of Supervisors and head of the county disaster council.

The Ventura County Fire Department is developing a plan to take part in the Golden Guardian drill, said Capt. Barry Parker.

"It's the biggest drill ever put together, so it takes months of planning," Parker said.

The drill will test the abilities of all responders and provide valuable information about the effects of a big tremor, he said.

"If a big earthquake occurs during the day, about 80,000 people who commute to Ventura County will be stuck here," Parker said. "So that's a lot of people who may need to be housed for a week or two."

Local involvement

Los Angeles County will play large role in the weeklong exercise, said L.A. County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky, whose district includes Calabasas, Agoura Hills and Westlake Village.

"I think Los Angeles County is the most prepared government entity in the country for emergencies and disasters. Local agencies have had a lot of practice, and they work together to respond to massive disasters in an effective way," Yaroslavsky said.

But local residents shouldn't count on government agencies entirely. Experts say families must be prepared to go it alone for at least 72 hours after a major earthquake because first the responders will be busy handling only the most dire emergencies.

"If a hospital or a parking garage collapses, as happened in the 1994 Northridge quake, first responders will be busy elsewhere," Yaroslavsky said.

Agoura Hills will conduct exercises on Nov. 13 and 18.

The Nov. 13 "functional" exercise is a simulated, interactive emergency preparedness activity in which participants act out the emergency from start to finish. City employees and volunteers will review and practice the steps in the exercise with full activation of the Emergency Operations Center and field operations, said Carol Tubelis, Agoura Hills emergency operations coordinator.

During the Nov. 18 "tabletop" drill, participants solve problems through discussion.

"Participants come up with actual and expected recovery critiques as the situation progresses to conclusion," Tubelis said.

To learn more, Yaroslavsky has posted an online guide at zev.lacounty.gov.

Next week: The community becomes becomes involved disaster preparedness.