Local football teams have a lot to play for
Sifting through postseason scenarios like swimming in mud- it isn't easy
By Stephen Dorman sdorman@theacorn.com

The possibilities seem endless, the outcomes virtually immeasurable.

As we enter the final weekend of the regular season, trying to figure out which high school football teams are going to make the playoffs is no easy task.

Bottom line: everything is up for grabs- multiple league titles, playoff seedings and, for some, the finality of a season or, perhaps, a playing career.

Around here, you see, Friday night is going to be a pretty big deal.

"It's weird because almost every year everyone expects this to happen, and then it doesn't happen," Thousand Oaks head coach Mike Leibin said. "Everything usually sorts itself out by Week 8. It didn't end up happening like that this year. The picture got murkier."

Rather than salivate on the weekend's potpourri of possibilities, Moorpark head coach Tim Lins focuses on the game.

"To be honest with you, I don't really want to think about all the scenarios," Lins said. "I know that if we win and are successful and take care of business, then everything else should fall into place."

Still, someone has to speculate, and we're more than happy to oblige.

Let's start in the Marmonte League, where Newbury Park (81, 5-1) and Westlake (6-3, 5-1) occupy first place. Thousand Oaks (54, 42) and Moorpark (63, 42) are right on those teams' heels.

Agoura (5-4, 3-3) is still in the mix, but the Marmonte only sends four teams to the CIF-Southern Section Northern Division playoffs, and right now the Chargers are on the outside looking in.

In a fairy-tale twist of football fate, Newbury Park plays at Thousand Oaks, while Westlake hosts Moorpark. Agoura plays Calabasas at AHS.

Here's a breakdown of each teams' chances:

Newbury Park: The Panthers are in the postseason, seeding notwithstanding. They can earn a share of the league title and the Marmonte's No. 1 playoff seed by beating Thousand Oaks. NPHS would be the outright champion if they won and Westlake lost. A Newbury Park victory also kills Agoura's playoff hopes.

Westlake: Like Newbury Park, Westlake is in. The Warriors can earn a share of the league title with a win against Moorpark. A WHS win and a Newbury Park loss means Westlake is the Marmonte champion.

Thousand Oaks: The Lancers have guaranteed themselves a playoff spot, too. They can finish anywhere from tied for first to fourth. If TOHS beats Newbury Park and Westlake topples Moorpark, the Lancers would earn the No. 2 seed. That's the highest seeding they can get.

Moorpark: Here's where things get totally wacky. If Moorpark beats Westlake and Thousand Oaks get past Newbury Park, there would be a four-way tie for first in the Marmonte.

In that circumstance, Moorpark would get the No. 1 playoff seed by virtue of its victories over Westlake, Newbury Park and Thousand Oaks. The rest of the seeds would be determined by both a coin flip and a head-to-head tiebreaker.

If Moorpark beats Westlake and Newbury Park is victorious, the Musketeers would tie for second and earn the No. 2 seed. A Moorpark loss opens the door for Agoura to knock the Musketeers completely out of the playoffs.

Basically, it's big reward, big risk for Moorpark.

Agoura: First and foremost, Agoura must beat Calabasas to stay alive. Secondly, Thousand Oaks must win its game and Moorpark has to lose. Those three scenarios are the only way the Chargers can qualify for the postseason.

In the event of a two-team tie for fourth, the Chargers would vault past Moorpark because they beat the Musketeers earlier in the year.

The Chargers cannot advance if there's a three-team tie for third between themselves, Moorpark and Thousand Oaks. In that case, the Marmonte would use a pointbased tiebreaker formula and AHS would come out on the short end of the stick.

Like Lins at Moorpark, Agoura head coach Charlie Wegher said his team can do one thing and one thing only: take care of its business.

"There are no circumstances this week where I need to know how somebody else is doing," Wegher said. "We just have to win the game; that's the No. 1 goal.

"I'm going to tell the announcers not to announce the other scores because I want my team completely focused on what they need to do."

Now, please take a deep breath; clear your head for a second. We're headed over to the TriValley League, where things are a little less complicated.

Tri-Valley League: Oak Park (6-3, 3-1) enters the weekend tied for first in the TriValley and already has a victory over rival Oaks Christian under its belt. What the Eagles, ranked fourth in the Northwest Division, don't have, however, is a guaranteed playoff berth.

If Oak Park can go on the road and beat Carpinteria (4-5, 2-2), they'll earn a share of the TriValley championship. If OPHS loses, and Oaks Christian (6-3, 3-1) and Nordhoff (5-3-1, 3-1) both win, the Eagles' season is over and Carpinteria advances.

Oaks Christian hosts Santa Paula, while Nordhoff travels to Moorpark College to play Grace Brethren. An Oaks Christian defeat would possibly be the upset of the millennium. If Nordhoff lost, it would be a sizable shocker.

The league gets three playoff teams in the field, and Oak Park owns the tiebreaker over Oaks Christian but not Nordhoff.

"It's exciting, but had we done our work against Nordhoff two weeks ago we wouldn't be in this position," Oak Park head coach Dick Billingsley said.

According to Billingsley, a three-team tie for first between Oak Park, Oaks Christian and Nordhoff would go to the league's "Rose Bowl rule."

In that situation, the team with the lowest playoff seed from a year ago, Nordhoff, would gain the No. 1 seed and last season's highest seed, Oaks Christian, would earn the No. 3 spot. Oak Park would remain the league's No. 2.

Imagine that- another league's first-place champion having to face Oaks Christian in the opening round of the playoffs. It almost doesn't seem fair, like trying to figure all this stuff out on paper.